South Bow’s recent quarterly report and open season notice have highlighted developments on its new Canadian egress solution, the Prairie Connector Project (see below). The company has launched an open season soliciting firm commitments for 450,000 bpd of capacity to Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast, with the process running until March 30, 2026.
As previously discussed, the project appears to leverage existing partial pipeline builds and pump stations from Hardisty, Alberta, to the U.S. border (stranded infrastructure from the original Keystone XL), connecting into Bridger’s proposed new 550,000 bpd expansion pipeline to Guernsey, Wyoming.
The crude oil flow path beyond Wyoming is less clear. From Guernsey, several routing options remain possible to move volumes southward. These include potential new build ties into underutilized segments of legacy Keystone at Steele City, Nebraska, or integrations with existing systems such as a twinning of the Pony Express pipeline, which would deliver into Cushing. Another intriguing possibility involves resurrecting elements of the pre-COVID Liberty Pipeline, a former joint venture between Bridger and Phillips 66, with evidence from Kansas county commissioner and landowner discussions suggesting Tallgrass representatives have recently explored related rights-of-way. The project’s name, Prairie Connector, may hint at deeper ties to Tallgrass Energy. Its parent entity is linked to Prairie Acquiror, suggesting potential collaboration on routing that favors existing corridors of Pony Express or Liberty rights-of-way (now owned by Bridger and Tallgrass) to minimize permitting challenges.
Beyond Cushing, South Bow’s focus appears to be utilizing and maximizing throughput on its existing 36-inch Marketlink segment from Cushing to the Gulf Coast (destinations like Houston and Port Arthur/Nederland). While nominally rated at around 800,000 bpd, this larger-diameter line could support significantly higher volumes, potentially approaching or exceeding 1 million bpd, depending on the light-to-heavy crude mix. Previous disclosures by the company indicated the pipeline was expandable to at least 990,000 bpd.
Overall, the initiative represents a pragmatic approach to unlocking value from idle Keystone XL infrastructure and underutilized/expandable Marketlink capacity while addressing Canadian crude egress constraints and boosting exports to U.S. markets. Success hinges on securing sufficient commitments, navigating regulatory and partnership dynamics (including brownfield competition from established players like Enbridge), and engineering optimal post-Guernsey flows. If advanced, the project could deliver meaningful upside for South Bow by revitalizing stranded assets and enhancing pipeline economics through higher contracted volumes.
