Today, March 25, 2026, RBN Energy releases Roundabout! – Canada-To-Rockies Crude Flows Reshaping The PADD 4 Guernsey Market, the major new multiclient study we co-authored (LINK). This roughly 80-page analysis, packed with charts and maps, delivers the clearest picture yet of how surging Canadian oil sands production, constrained traditional export corridors, and emerging Rockies infrastructure are quietly realigning North American crude flows — with the Guernsey, Wyoming hub emerging as a potential critical new nexus.
Special offer for current and future Plainview platform subscribers: Purchase the report from RBN Energy and you’ll receive a dollar-for-dollar credit toward an annual Plainview Platform subscription. This gives you ongoing access to the same interactive flow data, maps, and expanding library of regional supply-demand balances used in the analysis.
The report is now live and can be purchased here:
https://rbnenergy.com/analytics/studies/roundabout
Canadian crude output has climbed from 1.7 MMb/d in 1990 to ~5.1 MMb/d today, with RBN and Plainview projecting further growth to ~5.5 MMb/d by 2030. The dominant Enbridge Mainline (PADD 2) and Trans Mountain (West Coast) corridors still absorb most volumes, but both may be approaching their practical limits as optimization projects will eventually run into physical and economic constraints. As a result, the PADD 4 Rockies corridor is gaining serious traction as a potential path of least resistance. Existing systems already move ~400 Mb/d of Canadian crude into Montana and Wyoming, with meaningful expansion potential on the Express, Rangeland, and Bow River lines. A potential game-changer is also on the horizon: Bridger Pipeline’s proposed 550 Mb/d line from the Canadian border to Guernsey, possibly paired with South Bow’s Prairie Connector that would repurpose dormant Keystone XL infrastructure on the Canadian side.
With numerous potential expansions pushing incremental barrels toward Guernsey, the study also highlights the critical need for outbound egress solutions to more liquid markets like Cushing. Pony Express and Saddlehorn are already operating at or near full utilization, and any significant increase in Canadian inflows without matching takeaway capacity is an impossibility. The analysis explores viable paths forward out of Guernsey, including potential twinning of Pony Express, resurrection of the Liberty Pipeline route, a new connector pipeline to Steele City, or a patchwork of Guernsey-Northern Colorado-Cushing options.
The study dives deep with pipeline-by-pipeline flow data, granular sub-regional supply-demand balances (state-by-state and sub-state), production forecasts for Western Canada and the Rockies, multiple expansion scenarios, and detailed Guernsey pricing dynamics. If you want to understand how Canadian growth, Rockies pipeline logistics, and PADD 4 supply-demand balances are reshaping the North American crude map, this report is worth your time.
Let me know if you purchase it — happy to help redeem your credit or answer any questions. Contact: matthew.lewis@plainview-energy.com
