Wyoming Production Declines Offset by Canadian Pipeline Expansions? | Mexico's Dos Bocas Ramp-Up Cuts Exports
Declining Rocky Mountain Production May Meet Rising Canadian Inflows, While Mexico's Refining Surge Tightens Heavy Crude Supply and Stabilizes U.S. Gulf Coast Markets
Wyoming Production Declines as Potential Pipeline Expansions into PADD 4 Heat Up
Last week’s newsletter highlighted recent declining production in PADD 4, particularly in Wyoming, where output has been notably weak over the past six months, declining more than 10 percent. While flagging production may reduce local volumes, this supply loss could be more than offset by increased flows of Canadian crude into PADD 4. One possibility mentioned by Plains last week is an expansion of their Rangeland system. That expansion would likely leverage the sister Western Corridor system (including the Glacier, Beartooth, and Bighorn pipelines; orange pipes in our Wyoming balance below) to transport Canadian barrels from Montana into Wyoming and onward to the Guernsey Hub.
The Western corridor systems all have pockets of underutilized capacity. Shown below are flows on the Phillips 66 and Plains Beartooth undivided joint interests (UJI) from Montana to Wyoming. Both UJIs flow significantly under their nameplate capacity.
Market speculation and rumors persist about additional projects aimed at moving more Canadian crude into PADD 4, especially as Canada’s production trends show steady growth over the next decade and those barrels seek new outlets. Enbridge recently sanctioned a 30,000-barrel-per-day expansion on its Express pipeline. Those volumes will deliver into Casper, Wyoming, but appear ultimately destined for Midwest markets on a sister expansion slated on their Platte pipeline. Another potential supply increase could come from the Bridger pipeline, which recently indicated it is exploring an expansion on its system. The increased volumes likely target additional Bakken supply, but market speculation on a possible Canadian connection also exists.
To provide deeper context, Plainview Energy Analytics and RBN Energy are partnering on a comprehensive analysis of PADD 4 crude market dynamics which will include regional balances, pipelines flows and capacities, potential expansion pathways, and their broader implications. The report is expected to be released in the coming weeks and will be available through RBN.
Mexico’s Dos Bocas Refinery Ramps Up: Heavy Crude Throughput Surge and Reduced Exports Will Impact U.S.
Pemex’s December 2025 data reveal a significant step forward in Mexico’s push for refining self-sufficiency, as the long-delayed Olmeca refinery (also known as Dos Bocas) showed strong progress in ramping up operations. The $20 billion facility, designed exclusively to process heavy Mexican crude like Maya with a nameplate capacity of 340,000 barrels per day (bpd), achieved a throughput of over 260,000 bpd.
The surge reflects broader efforts across Pemex’s refineries to boost domestic processing amid declining crude production, which has fallen by about 200,000 bpd over the past two years, reducing excess heavy crude available for export. This shift has notable implications for global heavy crude markets, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast. With Mexico consuming more of its own heavy oil domestically and exports dropping to multi-decade lows, there’s limited surplus Maya crude entering international markets.
As Venezuelan heavy crude production potentially ramps up under changing geopolitical dynamics, the reduced Mexican supply could offset some of the downward pressure on Gulf Coast heavy prices. This dynamic may also support better netbacks and economics for Canadian heavy oil delivered to the region, helping stabilize pricing amid competing supply sources.
Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage
Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.
