South Bow & Bridger Close to Securing Commitments Needed for New Alberta-to-Guernsey Pipeline

Reuters reported last week that shippers have committed to move at least 400,000 barrels per day (of the initial 550,000 bpd capacity) on South Bow and Bridger’s major new pipeline project from Alberta to Guernsey, Wyoming. Committed shippers include Cenovus Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, and others according to the report. Bridger has targeted approximately 450,000 bpd of committed volumes to proceed with the project, and current interest suggests the expansion is on track to advance. Bridger’s newly created expansion page indicates permitting and regulatory reviews are expected to run through 2027, with construction planned from fall 2027 and an in-service target of late 2028 or early 2029 (see figure below).

While commitments for the Alberta-to-Guernsey segment are solidifying, significant uncertainty remains around what will happen to these barrels once delivered to Wyoming. As we noted in our co-authored PADD 4 crude study with RBN Energy, PADD 4 already faces relatively tight takeaway capacity (see PADD 4 to Cushing graph below), and 450,000+ bpd of incremental heavy oil supply will almost certainly require the addition of a new egress pipeline. A February 2026 joint open season between Tallgrass and Bridger points to potential use of the Pony Express Pipeline corridor, possibly through a new twin line or rights-of-way acquired from the cancelled Phillips 66 Liberty Pipeline (which were purchased by Bridger/Tallgrass). Both of these routes would deliver volumes to Cushing, Oklahoma, with further access to the Gulf Coast via South Bow’s Marketlink system.

Energy Transfer to Expand Bayou Bridge Pipeline to 600,000 BPD, Backed by Increased Commitment

Energy Transfer announced last week that it has approved an expansion of its Bayou Bridge Pipeline joint venture, boosting capacity to approximately 600,000 barrels per day (vs. ~480,000 bpd previously). The new project is supported by a 10-year contract extension and increased volume commitment from a key demand-pull customer, with the expanded capacity expected to come online in the first quarter of 2027. Phillips 66, which owns 40% of the pipeline and serves as a major shipper alongside CITGO, is viewed by Plainview as the anchor customer driving the expansion. The timing aligns with the expiration of the original 10-year anchor contract, replacing a 130,000 bpd commitment with a new 175,000 bpd contract at slightly lower rates.

The Bayou Bridge Pipeline currently supplies about 150,000 bpd to Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery, accounting for the majority of the refinery’s 225,000 bpd throughput in 2025, with the balance coming from Shell’s Zydeco Pipeline and waterborne sources. The higher new commitment could displace some volumes from those secondary sources or support increased refinery utilization, given Lake Charles’s nameplate capacity of around 260,000 bpd. The expansion will also loosen an upstream bottleneck on Bayou Bridge, allowing it to deliver additional volumes past Lake Charles to St. James, a segment of the pipeline that has been significantly underutilized (see graph below) since it was completed in 2019.

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Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 400 assets with crude oil throughput or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

A Plainview on Crude Oil

South Bow and Bridger’s Alberta-to-Guernsey…