Oil Earnings Summary (Week 3): A Lot of the Same
Producers, Midstream, and Refiners Reporting Earnings in Week 3 Echo Sentiments from Weeks 1-2
Note to Reader
This piece is a human-curated synthesis of public earnings call commentary from companies participating across the crude oil value chain. It is designed to highlight the key operational themes, guidance shifts, and strategic signals observed in the first two weeks of earnings, without requiring the reader to review each transcript individually.
The goal is to deliver the essential messages in a format that can be read in approximately ten to fifteen minutes. This is not a forecast or opinion piece. It is a structured summary of what companies said, organized to save time and accelerate understanding.
Upstream Commentary
Week 3 of upstream earnings calls struck a similar tone to Weeks 1-2, with producers highlighting resilient production in the face of volatile oil prices, perceived oversupply risks, and geopolitical uncertainties. Persistent themes from last week’s calls included:
Strong Operational Execution: Nearly all companies exceeded Q3 production guidance, driven by efficiency gains (e.g., longer laterals, cost reductions, better well performance), leading to upward revisions in full-year 2025 targets. Oil volumes in many cases grew 5-10% YoY, with growth focused in the Permian, Canada, and offshore areas.
Cautious 2026 Outlook: Soft (early) guidance emphasizes capital discipline, with flat to low-single-digit production growth (or slight declines in tier 2 basins). Many producers have delayed announcing formal 2026 plans until February 2026, citing macro volatility.
Strategic Priorities: Emphasis on cost efficiencies (e.g., simul-fracs, hedging), inventory preservation. Royalties/minerals firms highlight steady activity visibility via line-of-sight wells. Broader trends include consolidation benefits, gas growth potential, and resilience in basins like the Permian (slowing but not peaking yet).
Midstream Commentary
Week 3 of midstream oil commentary reflects resilience and strategic expansions amid commodity price volatility around $60/bbl WTI and cautious producer activity. Key themes include:
Solid Q3 Performance: Throughput growth in core areas like Permian/Delaware (mid-single digits YoY for gas, low-single for crude/NGLs). Potential weakness for some names in Q4 2025 due to Permian shut-ins (October), turnarounds, and possible basin-specific production declines in 2026 if prices are weak (e.g., Powder River, Bakken, DJ).
Stable Q4 Outlook: Volumes largely flat to slightly up sequentially, with temporary impacts from maintenance, weather, and curtailments (Permian shut-ins in October).
Cautious 2026 Growth: Low-single to mid-single digit throughput increases expected in tier 1 basins like the Permian, Canada, and Offshore; flat to modest declines in price-sensitive basins (DJ, Powder River, Bakken).
Strategic Priorities: Focus on Canadian crude egress and connectivity (DAPL/Mainline/Capline), Permian expansions primarily for gas/NGLs, risks from rig reductions in tier 2 basins.
Downstream Commentary
Week 3 of downstream earnings commentary highlights a sector navigating volatility from geopolitical disruptions, supply tightness, and seasonal dynamics, with a cautiously optimistic tone for near-term margins. Key themes include:
Robust Q3 Execution Amid Headwinds: Companies achieved strong cash generation and high utilization despite market challenges, modest inventory builds for some commodities, and volatile differentials.
Positive Q4 Momentum: Early indicators point to rallying product margins driven by distillate strength, seasonally low inventories, and demand signals (modest diesel/jet growth, flat gasoline). West Coast dynamics (e.g., closures) are viewed as tailwinds, with seasonal softness anticipated but offset by efficiencies.
2026 and Beyond Outlook: Fundamentals suggest persistent supply tightness and demand support into 2026, with potential for elevated mid-cycle margins due to capacity rationalization and export opportunities. Bullish on diesel/jet amid global growth.
Upstream Company Tidbits
SM Energy
Strong Q3 growth driven by consistent asset performance, exceeding prior-year levels significantly. Q4 guidance narrowed with steady volumes; no 2026 outlook provided, maintaining focus on operational consistency.
Kosmos Energy
Q3 marked record highs at Jubilee with new wells online and drilling efficiencies enabling campaign expansion. Expects further near-term quarterly growth through 2026 via additional wells and optimizations, targeting materially higher sustained levels despite non-linear trajectory.
Black Stone Minerals
Q3 volumes grew quarter-over-quarter, fueled by Permian strength. Unchanged full-year 2025 guidance, with anticipated Q4 and early 2026 uplift from key developments like Aethon and Permian projects. Long-term target: 50% production increase through 2030.
Vitesse Energy
Q3 benefited from increased longer-lateral participation and successful operated wells, prompting upward revisions to full-year 2025 guidance. Positive on 2026 momentum from operator consolidation and concentrated acreage development, tempered by oil price and funding considerations.
Crescent Energy
No formal 2026 guidance; current multi-rig program supports ongoing development at strip prices, with flexibility to scale back for integration and returns optimization. Emphasizes reduced oil-weighted activity for financial and operational efficiency.
Diamondback Energy
Q3 revisions reflect acquisition synergies and efficiency gains. Remains in “yellow” mode for flat oil growth into 2026, prioritizing per-share metrics via buybacks; potential acceleration in “green” scenario at higher prices (~$70), with cuts in “red” below $60.
Greenfire Resources
On track for top-end full-year 2025 growth from strong base well performance. 2026 plan targets flat volumes year-over-year despite capex increase, due to planned turnaround and delayed growth projects; focuses on resuming full capacity.
Viper Energy
Expects mid-single-digit organic oil growth into 2026 from Q4 2025 levels, implying stronger per-share gains. Outlook assumes maintenance activity, with insulation from high-return project prioritization in softer markets.
BP
Q3 upstream growth quarter-over-quarter on high reliability. Q4 expected broadly flat, with oil slightly up and gas down. 2026 capex frame unchanged; potential for long-term organic oil expansion via key regions, with slight overall growth through 2030.
Coterra
Strong Q4 2025 oil growth quarter-over-quarter. Soft 2026 guide: Modest capex reduction supporting continued oil and total volume increases, with low reinvestment rate. Three-year outlook emphasizes consistent profitable growth through cycles.
Ovintiv
Q3 at high end of guidance, with growth from Montney efficiencies and acquisitions. Raised full-year 2025 targets while cutting capex; no 2026 guidance yet, but resilient cash flow supports ongoing optimization.
Chord Energy
Q3 exceeded guidance midpoint on improved cycle times. Soft 2026: Largely flat oil production when adjusted for acquisition, with lower capex versus prior pro forma; second frac crew adds momentum. Expects mid-year volume peak.
California Resources Corporation (CRC)
Q3 volumes stable quarter-over-quarter on disciplined capex. Q4 shaping up strong with efficiencies. Soft 2026 guidance: Modest capex increase targeting reduced decline rate (~2% decline), steady performance via workovers and sidetracks; excludes pending merger.
Suncor
Record Q3 upstream growth year-over-year despite turnarounds. Revised 2025 higher across volumes and lower on capex; no 2026 guidance, but strong execution underpins continued outperformance.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
Q3 royalty growth sequential and year-over-year, driven by Permian activity, longer laterals, and well additions. Sustained momentum from subregion developments.
Kimbell Royalty Partners
Q3 organic growth quarter-over-quarter, exceeding guidance midpoint amid industry slowdown. Reaffirmed 2025 for flat end; 2026 early view: Flat to increasing, supported by steady rigs and excess line-of-sight wells.
Devon
Q3 exceeded midpoints with cost efficiencies driving cash flow strength. 2026 prelim: Minimal decline versus Q3 2025 at consistent activity; no plans for incremental volumes in oversupplied market, focusing on free cash flow.
Canadian Natural Resources
Full-year 2026 guidance includes nearly 5% liquids growth; strong multi-year outlook.
Permian Resources Corporation
Q3 oil growth quarter-over-quarter on execution. No soft 2026 guide yet; flexible for growth or flat/low scenarios per macro, with enhanced capital efficiency from cost/productivity gains and better realizations.
High Peak Energy
Q3 volumes held steady despite reduced activity. Delayed rig pickup, but Q4 dual-rig run sets up 2026 scenarios: Moderate decline in bear case, flat in base, growth in bull; emphasizes cash flow and debt focus.
APA Corporation
Q3 exceeded guidance across areas with strong execution. Raised full-year 2025 U.S. oil. 2026 prelim: Flat Permian oil at current rigs, with Egypt gas growth; capex flexibility for price downside, prioritizing free cash flow.
SandRidge
Q3 growth year-over-year on acquisition and development. 2026: Continued single-rig plan on high-return assets, targeting meaningful oil increases above 2025 exit via ongoing completions and drilling.
ConocoPhillips
Q3 exceeded high-end guidance, with full-year 2025 raised. Q4 slight decline. 2026 framework: Flat to low growth at reduced capex/opex; multi-year free cash flow inflection intact.
Talos
Q3 exceeded high end, with full-year 2025 up. 2026: Flat year-over-year oil via balanced development; shape includes mid-year dip, H2 uplift from projects.
Murphy Oil
Q3 strong on performance. Q4 moderate decline on cadence. No 2026 guide yet; flexible capex blending onshore reductions with sticky offshore investments for balanced growth.
Vermillion
Q3 at upper guidance. Q4 stable with deferred wells. Full-year 2025 flat to Q4; 2026 flat to Q4 exit, leveraging repositioned gas portfolio.
Riley Exploration Permian
Q3 oil growth quarter-over-quarter on acquisitions and workovers. Raised Q4/full-year 2025. 2026 prelim: Maintained levels (year-over-year growth) at reduced capex; early drilling adds Q1 momentum.
Granite Ridge Resources
Q3 significant year-over-year growth. 2026: Measured growth above $60 oil; pivot to maintenance below $55; long-term constructive despite near-term caution.
Ring Energy
Q3 above midpoint on acquisitions and new wells offsetting declines. Raised Q4/full-year 2025. 2026 prelim: Roughly flat, with disciplined reinvestment for stability.
EOG
Q3 exceeded midpoints on volumes, below on costs/capex. Near-term oversupply, but constructive longer-term. 2026: No/low oil growth at Q4 run-rate activity; continued gas and international investment.
Northern Oil and Gas
Q3 year-over-year growth, with Q4 sequential uplift on wells. Raised full-year 2025. 2026: Flat oil similar to industry, material gas growth; activity stable, return-driven allocation.
Midstream Company Tidbits
Hess Midstream
Q3 throughput up ~3% QoQ in gas gathering/processing. Q4 expected flat vs. Q3 due to lower third-party volumes, winter contingencies, and maintenance. 2026 base: Oil plateau, gas growth via rising GORs at 3 Chevron rigs; supports long-term revenue (75% gas-driven).
MPLX
Q3 strong volumes across crude/products logistics, anchored by MPC partnership. Resilient to lower oil prices via MVCs/capacity contracts (minimal COVID-era dip). Mid-single-digit long-term EBITDA growth via organic (e.g., Permian focus) plus M&A; no near-term 2026 specifics.
NGL Energy
Q3 record water volumes; crude logistics up 30% QoQ on Grand Mesa pipeline (likely due to more aggressive marketing). October volumes strong; sustained momentum from Permian synergies and infrastructure.
Targa
Q3 Permian gas inlet volumes up 11% YoY with sequential ramp. Q4 top-end EBITDA guidance post-shut-ins/storms. 2025: At least 10% Permian growth; 2026: Low-double-digit increase, supported by steady producer activity and outperformance.
Plains
Q3 stable Permian growth amid mixed operator signals. Q4 step-up implied in guidance. 2026: Flat volumes short-term, but bullish long-term Permian/North America expansion; stable in Rockies/Mid-Con/Eagle Ford; potential Canadian egress via Capline optimizations.
Western Midstream
Q3 Delaware record highs despite fewer wells; crude/NGL down 4% QoQ (Delaware offset by DJ). Full-year: Mid-single gas, low-single crude/NGL YoY growth (ex-divestitures). Q4: Gas up (Uinta tie-in), crude/NGL rebound. 2026: Growth across products led by Delaware/Aris water; modest declines in PRB/DJ if prices weak, offset by new developments like Bronco CAP.
Energy Transfer
Q3 crude growth on Permian JV, offset by Bakken/Bayou Bridge turnarounds (now normalized). Expansions: Price River terminal doubles export (Q4 2026 in-service); Canadian projects (100k bpd Southern Illinois FID, 250k bpd DAPL/ETCOP by mid-2026) backfill Bakken cliffs for steady/ growing earnings into 2040s.
Kinetik
Q3 impacted by ~20% curtailments (oil/gas) from low prices/negative Waha. Delays short-term (Q4 TIL shifts, minimal to early 2026). 2026: Within long-term growth targets; King’s Landing/ECCC online, NGL expirations/cost cuts offset by activity uncertainty; Permian resilience but flat gas forecasts per EIA.
Delek Logistics
Q3 record crude/water; no material drilling changes. Q4: Increased activity ahead of Libby 2 sour gas online, boosting synergies across streams. Raised full-year guidance; proud of Permian crude/gas/water strategy yield.
Enbridge
Q3 Mainline record volumes. Q4 slight southbound weakness from PADD II demand, improving early. Sanctioned Southern Illinois (100k bpd to Nederland, 2028?); MLO1 FID Q4 2025 (150k bpd 2027), MLO2 upsized to 250k bpd (2028, w/ET on DAPL). 2026+: Base 1MM bpd Canadian growth by 2035; upside from policy unlocks.
Pembina
Q3 pipelines up 1% YoY on Alliance seasonal/ Peace tolls/volumes; Cochin recontracting offset. Conventional volumes up 4% QoQ. 2026: Single-digit growth from oil sands debottlenecks, infrastructure, condensate/NGL demand; producer focus on returns may cause timing variability, but long-term confident.
Downstream Company Tidbits
Delek
Q4 off to a strong start with optimism around distillate cracks and high yields; expects continued strength in shaping margins.
Par Pacific
Q3 benefited from max-distillate configuration and lighter crude slate alignment. Q4 outlook positive with rallying margins from tight balances and geopolitics; capture steady in Hawaii (elevated via freight), mid-range in Tacoma, strong in Rockies despite seasonal gasoline/asphalt softening. No major shifts in crude sourcing; minor hedge headwind noted.
Marathon Petroleum
Q3 strong on 95% utilization. Q4 started well with seasonally strong cracks, normalized jet/diesel, and butane inventory tailwind; demand signals bullish (modest diesel/jet growth, flat gasoline). West Coast tailwinds from closures and waterborne advantages expected to persist 8-12 quarters; sour differentials to widen slightly in Q1. 2026: Fundamentals supportive of tightness and modest global demand upgrades; bullish on ASCI/ANS/Bakken/Syncrude via production/export dynamics.