North American E&P 2026 Oil Production Guidance: ~1% Exit Growth; Enbridge Spearhead Open Season Now Live
Backwardation encourages pulled-forward production output but limits rig adds; Spearhead open season complements Southern Illinois Connector for enhanced Canadian crude egress
North American E&P 2026 Guidance: ~1% Oil Production Growth Amid Iran Conflict and Backwardation
With Q4 2025 results finalized and most publicly traded North American producers having released their 2026 guidance, the outlook points to slight overall oil production growth. Plainview’s tracking of North American E&Ps indicates an estimated ~1% exit-to-exit oil production growth from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (see table below). This aligns closely with the softer guidance many companies provided toward the end of Q3 2025, where profiles were generally described as flat to slightly growing. Larger operators are driving much of the weighted growth, with Canadian Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips, and Cenovus guiding to low- to mid-single-digit increases on an organic (acquisition and divestiture-adjusted) basis.
Spiking oil prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict have prompted some optimism for potential adjustments to producer plans. However, the futures curve remains in steep backwardation, making it difficult to commit incremental capital for new projects while locking in attractive economics. This market structure will encourage pulling forward production where possible to capitalize on elevated near-term prices, though producers will likely require sustained higher futures prices ($80+ WTI) to justify adding material new drilling rigs and accelerating broader activity.
Spearhead Pipeline Launches Open Season: 165K bpd Available from Western Canada to Cushing
Enbridge has launched a binding open season for its Spearhead Pipeline (Line 55), offering up to approximately 165,000 barrels per day (bpd) of firm committed capacity from receipt points in Western Canada to delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma, under an International Joint Tariff. Spearhead’s existing contract structure includes legacy committed volumes of around 120,000 bpd locked in from 2006 (extended in 2016) and additional expansion capacity from 2009 (recontracted in 2019), both sets expiring in 2026. The open season targets significant uncommitted space on the roughly 193,000 bpd nameplate capacity pipeline from Flanagan, Illinois, to Cushing.
This offering complements Spearhead capacity already allocated to the Southern Illinois Connector project, which Enbridge sanctioned in late 2025 (expected in-service around 2028) and plans to utilize about 70,000 bpd of existing Spearhead capacity to route barrels from the Midwest toward Patoka, Illinois (via Platte Pipeline connections), and onward to the Gulf Coast via the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP). The combination of the open season’s 165,000 bpd to Cushing plus the 70,000 bpd for Southern Illinois Connector volumes suggests potential for the northern/Flanagan-to-Key segment of Spearhead to support throughput exceeding the pipeline’s current nameplate capacity in certain configurations, which could enhance overall line utilization and profitability amid strong demand for Canadian crude egress routes.
Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage
Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.
