The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a staggering 6.4 million barrels of crude oil exports for the week ending April 24, marking the highest weekly figure ever recorded. Even when smoothing the data with a three-week average to account for typical weekly volatility, the export surge remains the strongest on record (see graph below). This unprecedented outflow comes as global oil markets face a major supply shock from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting supply gap has triggered a strong “call” on American barrels, driving significantly higher volumes from U.S. storage hubs (including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) to Gulf Coast export terminals.

Despite the substantial rise in export volumes, U.S. marine terminals appear well-positioned to handle additional flow. Corpus Christi’s nameplate export capacity, for instance, is approximately 5 million barrels per day, nearly double its recent throughput (see graph below). Nevertheless, upstream pipeline bottlenecks remain a risk, potentially capping the upside for certain facilities. Pipeline capacity into Ingleside was already near its limit prior to the recent throughput growth and is likely facing significant constraints at present.

Current U.S. Petroleum Export Boom Powered by Storage, Not Supply Growth

The headline U.S. crude export numbers are impressive, yet a closer look reveals the true story behind the surge. In the two months since the Iran conflict escalated, U.S. crude oil production has likely not materially changed. At the same time, domestic refinery throughput is running marginally higher than the two-year average, reducing available crude oil supply (see graph below). This means the rapid climb in exports has been almost entirely enabled by large-scale storage drawdowns, both from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and commercial inventories across the country.

Short-term, these inventory releases are providing a welcome boost to throughput across U.S. pipelines and export terminals. However, storage drawdowns cannot continue indefinitely. For the U.S. to sustain elevated throughput volumes over the longer term, either domestic production growth or meaningful cuts in refinery runs will be required. Ultimately, global and domestic markets must balance. With a steeply backwardated forward curve currently discouraging new drilling, either higher prices or a swift resolution to the Iran conflict will be needed to rebalance the market.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 350 assets with crude oil throughput or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

Iran Conflict Driving Large U.S. Light Sweet Crude Premiums

The ongoing conflict in Iran and the resulting threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure continue to inject sharp volatility into global oil markets, tightening supply from the Middle East and pulling U.S. barrels strongly toward export. As previously noted, this global shortage has already widened spreads between Cushing and the Gulf Coast. Now the pressure has moved inland, creating unusual price dislocations across domestic light sweet crude grades for June delivery. Bakken crude at Dakota Access Pipeline receipt points is currently trading at a $5.60 premium to Cushing WTI, while the same grade in Guernsey trades at a more modest $3.30 premium. The standout anomaly is in Patoka, Illinois, where Bakken light sweet crude commands a staggering $9.50 premium to Cushing WTI.

The massive premium at Patoka likely stems from Midwest (PADD 2) refineries aggressively bidding up these light sweet barrels to secure domestic supply and avoid losing them to export markets, where international benchmarks such as Brent are already trading more than $11 above Cushing. This localized scramble is likely to shift some crude away from lower priced markets (Guernsey, Cushing) and toward Patoka in the near term, delivering short-term upside potential for pipelines like Dakota Access that deliver into the Patoka area.

North Dakota Oil Sees 13% Workover Rig Surge on Price Spike, But New Drilling Remains Tepid Amid Steep Backwardation

The North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources’ latest monthly Director’s Cut highlighted a notable uptick in producer activity following the recent oil price spike triggered by the Iran conflict. Workover rig counts in the state have risen approximately 13%, as operators focus on optimizing existing wells to bring incremental production online quickly. Workover rigs provide a faster and lower-capital route to incremental barrels compared to new drilling, allowing producers to capitalize on elevated near-term prices without committing to large-scale development programs.

However, new horizontal rig additions remain tepid due to the steeply backwardated WTI forward curve, with 2027 prices hovering just above $70 per barrel. While it is reported that one Bakken operator has committed to picking up a rig and frac crew for July, and another is considering a similar move, broader capital spending discipline persists across North Dakota and the wider U.S. shale patch. This market structure signals that even if Middle East supply disruptions persist, U.S. production growth is likely to remain muted in the medium term, as producers remain wary of locking in incremental capital at today’s uncertain longer-dated prices.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

Red River Pipeline: Latent Capacity Could Create Upside from Widening Cushing-to-Gulf Coast Spreads

The widening price spread between Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast continues to create attractive opportunities for midstream operators and marketing arms with access to previously underutilized pipeline routes. While much of our attention has focused on larger systems like Seaway and Marketlink, smaller and more flexible corridors are also well-positioned to benefit. One key asset is the Cushing-to-Longview segment of the Red River pipeline (red line below), a joint venture between Plains All American (67% ownership) and Delek Logistics (33%). The line has a nameplate capacity of approximately 235,000 barrels per day at the Oklahoma-Texas border but has averaged less than 150,000 bpd in 2025, leaving latent capacity available to capture incremental barrels while the spread remains elevated.

Barrels delivered to Longview in East Texas have multiple options to move crude further south or east to Gulf Coast markets. Volumes can flow south via Delek’s wholly owned Paline Pipeline (blue line below) to the Beaumont/Port Arthur/Nederland area. Additional routes include Louisiana access on the Permian Express system (eastbound orange line) and three legacy Energy Transfer pipelines connecting Longview to Nederland, Beaumont, and Houston (southbound orange lines). Several of these lines have historically moved barrels northward but may retain the physical ability to reverse or optimize flows southward during periods of sustained wide spreads. This connectivity offers meaningful upside for both third-party marketers and the pipeline owners’ own marketing arms by enabling more barrels to reach higher-priced Gulf Coast destinations.

Valero Port Arthur Refinery Partial Restart: Limited Impact on Midstream Amid Strong Export Demand

Valero’s 380,000 bpd Port Arthur refinery in Texas is beginning a partial restart after a multi-week outage triggered by a fire and explosion on March 23rd. The refinery draws crude through multiple flexible supply routes, including its own Premcor Pipeline (red line below), which gathers volumes from regional terminals fed by a variety of major pipeline systems including Marketlink and Seaway. The Premcor system also receives imported crude, primarily Mexican Maya, via its waterborne terminal and can access additional supply from Energy Transfer’s Nederland Terminal.

In a typical market environment, a prolonged shutdown of a large refinery like Port Arthur could create noticeable disruptions for midstream assets serving the facility, including lower utilization on feeder pipelines and terminals. However, robust U.S. crude export demand, driven in part by the ongoing Iran conflict, has likely absorbed the lost refinery demand without issue. As a result, terminals and connecting pipelines have likely experienced minimal impact, with barrels readily redirected to export markets instead of local refining.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

While much of the administrative action reinforces existing operations, there is an issuance of a ninth permit for a “newly constructed 24-inch pipeline” tied to Enbridge’s Bakken Pipeline, which may act as a replacement to the current 12-inch border crossing line. This new authorization ties in with Enbridge’s Mainline Optimization 2 project (MLO2), which is planning to utilize Bakken Pipeline to shift light crude off Enbridge’s Mainline in Canada to the Dakota Access Pipeline. This larger 24-inch border crossing line is likely needed if MLO2 is to achieve its full 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) capacity.

The landscape of Canadian crude oil egress is shifting rapidly with several major “open seasons” and projects proposed over recent months. While much of the industry’s focus has been on moving barrels out of Western Canada, a critical question remains: what happens to this oil once it reaches the U.S. Midwest? With major players like Enbridge (green lines below) and South Bow/Bridger/Pony (blue lines below) proposing multiple expansions, we could see over 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) of new capacity targeting Cushing, Oklahoma, by the end of the decade.

This massive influx of crude raises concerns about potential infrastructure constraints. Historical precedents, such as the 2018–2019 period, show that when the Cushing hub becomes overwhelmed, price dislocations can reach $5 to $6 per barrel compared to Gulf Coast prices. Currently, the primary outlets from Cushing to the Gulf are the Seaway (red line below) and Marketlink (blue line below) pipelines. While both have some latent capacity and expansion potential (roughly 700,000 bpd combined) recent high oil prices could provide enough demand for both the South Bow/Bridger/Pony and Enbridge projects to be sanctioned, which would push Seaway and Marketlink to their absolute limits.

However, the market has built-in mechanisms to prevent a total logjam. As Cushing fills up and prices begin to slightly erode, “displacement” will likely occur. Shippers on Legacy Keystone, for instance, would be incentivized to shift their volumes away from Cushing and toward other hubs like Wood River or Patoka. This rerouting would alleviate pressure on Cushing, effectively “squishing” the barrels toward different markets in search of better pricing.

The Patoka hub, in particular, offers a vital safety valve. Pipelines like Energy Transfer’s ETCOP (purple line below) and the Capline system (green line below) currently have significant open space. Capline, a 40-inch pipeline, is easily expandable and could potentially handle over a million barrels per day if necessary. These secondary routes ensure that while Cushing may see some price tightening, the extreme discounts seen in previous years are less likely to recur as the industry utilizes more flexible downstream options.

Special offer for current and future Plainview platform subscribers: Purchase the report from RBN Energy and you’ll receive a dollar-for-dollar credit toward an annual Plainview Platform subscription. This gives you ongoing access to the same interactive flow data, maps, and expanding library of regional supply-demand balances used in the analysis.

The report is now live and can be purchased here:
https://rbnenergy.com/analytics/studies/roundabout

Enbridge Initiates Multiple Open Seasons - 250,000 bpd Pipeline Expansion from Western Canada to U.S. Gulf Coast/Midwest

On Friday, Enbridge launched open seasons on their Flanagan South, Seaway, and Southern Access Extension pipelines, offering a combined 250,000 barrels per day of new capacity with receipt points linked back to Western Canada. The move appears to be tied to the company’s Mainline Optimization 2 (MLO2) Project which will use the Dakota Access Pipeline to shift light crude off the Canadian mainline, freeing up capacity for heavier crude on Enbridge’s Mainline system to Flanagan, Illinois.

Shippers appear to have two downstream options for the new capacity: 200,000 bpd of expanded capacity on the Flanagan South and Seaway pipelines (green and blue lines below) for direct access to the Texas Gulf Coast, or 50,000 bpd on the Southern Access Extension (red line below) to Patoka, Illinois, where barrels can connect to ETCOP or other third-party pipelines for onward transport to the Midwest or Gulf. The timing is notable, as several competing projects are also vying for incremental Western Canadian volumes, including Trans Mountain’s drag-reducing agent expansion (up to 90,000 bpd) and the recently concluded South Bow/Bridger/Pony Express open seasons for up to 550,000 bpd of new capacity into Cushing with access to the Gulf Coast.

Seaway Expansion Sparks Questions on Future Cushing Takeaway Capacity

The open season language indicates MLO2 will include a capacity expansion on Seaway Pipeline as well. Seaway is a critical north-to-south crude route from Cushing, Oklahoma, to the Texas Gulf Coast and is a 50/50 joint venture between Enbridge and Enterprise Products. The system consists of two parallel 30-inch pipelines serving Freeport, Houston, Texas City, Port Arthur, and Nederland. The older line, built in the 1970s, has a listed capacity of just 300,000 barrels per day, while the newer line, built in the mid-2010s, carries 650,000 bpd (~950,000 bpd combined). However, post-COVID average flows have hovered closer to 750,000 bpd (see graph below). Nevertheless, the open season language signals that more capacity may be planned.

Notably, Enbridge’s proposed 200,000 bpd expansion from Flanagan to the Gulf Coast via Seaway, along with the recently concluded South Bow/Bridger/Pony Express open season, would both route incremental Western Canadian barrels through Cushing as a key waypoint. With one or both projects likely to be sanctioned, this raises important questions about future takeaway capacity out of Cushing. Additional infrastructure beyond the planned Seaway expansion may ultimately be required, depending on the final volumes sanctioned. We will discuss this topic further in our video update early this coming week.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

Bridger Pipeline Files Full Montana DEQ Application - New Pipeline Expandable to 1,130,000 BPD

Bridger Pipeline has submitted its complete application to the Montana Department of Environmental Quality for a new pipeline that will transport Canadian crude from the U.S.-Canada border to Guernsey, Wyoming. While an initial January notice indicated a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day (bpd), the full filing reveals the pipeline’s potential to deliver up to 1,130,000 bpd of incremental transportation capacity into Guernsey, though it is expected to operate initially at the 550,000 bpd level.

The 36-inch pipeline (purple line in figure below) appears to be designed with substantial future optionality. Its cited maximum expandability to 1,130,000 bpd may suggest the potential ability to batch light oil, allowing significantly higher volumes than the typical 800,000 bpd ceiling for heavy oil service on a line of this size. Although the application specifically mentions moving Canadian oil, detailed maps also show potential tie-ins at key Bakken receipt points — Four Mile Station north of Sidney, Montana, and Baker/Sandstone Station west of Baker, Montana — providing access to most of Bridger’s North Dakota gathering network (green lines below), including recently acquired Caliber Midstream assets (shown in red below). This optionality positions the project for potential future expansion beyond 550,000 bpd and creates the possibility of a new competitive egress option for Bakken shippers.

Special offer for current and future Plainview platform subscribers: Purchase our co-authored Canada to Guernsey focused report from RBN Energy and you’ll receive a dollar-for-dollar credit toward an annual Plainview Platform subscription. This gives you ongoing access to the same interactive flow data, maps, and expanding library of regional supply-demand balances used in the analysis.

The report is now live and can be purchased here:
https://rbnenergy.com/analytics/studies/roundabout

Grand Mesa Pipeline Cuts Uncommitted Rate to $5/Barrel Amid Recent Competitive Push

Grand Mesa Pipeline has filed a new tariff that reduces its uncommitted rates from Weld County, Colorado to Cushing, Oklahoma to a flat $5.00 per barrel. The reduction represents a 12% to 32% decrease depending on prior volume tiers and comes at an opportune time as recent oil price spikes tied to the Iran conflict encourage producers to pull forward volumes where possible. The new rate is designed to strengthen Grand Mesa’s competitiveness in the spot market, particularly for barrels originating at the more northern Lucerne and Riverside terminals.

While the $5 rate remains well above committed shipper rates out of Northern Colorado (which is below $2.00 for some pipes), it positions Grand Mesa favorably against alternative uncommitted paths such as DJ South Gathering plus White Cliffs, which sit slightly above $5. This latest more aggressive pricing move follows a strong year of volume growth, with Grand Mesa increasing mainline throughput from 55,000 barrels per day in Q2 2025 to 85,000 barrels per day by Q4 2025 as the company continues locking in new committed shippers.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

Energy Transfer has issued a rare “flash open season” for its Bayou Bridge Pipeline, announcing an immediate auction for available capacity starting in May 2026. This unconventional move invites shippers to bid on a least 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) of capacity from Nederland, Texas, to Lake Charles or St. James, Louisiana. With bid rates starting above $2.15 per barrel for a term no longer than seven months, the auction signals a strategic pivot by Energy Transfer to capture a sudden surge in market interest triggered by extreme price volatility.

The Bayou Bridge Pipeline serves as a critical artery for the Gulf Coast, moving crude from the Nederland terminal to Louisiana’s refining hubs. While 2025 data showed healthy utilization between Nederland and Lake Charles, averaging a record 335,000 bpd, the segment extending to St. James has historically underperformed, averaging just 65,000 bpd against its 480,000 bpd capacity. This auction suggests a potential volumetric upside for the pipeline as the market looks to source cheaper domestic barrels.

The primary catalyst for this shift is likely the massive Brent-WTI spread, which recently spiked to over $10 per barrel for May delivery. This gap makes inland U.S. WTI-price linked barrels significantly more attractive than waterborne imports tied to global Brent pricing. For Louisiana refineries, which currently receive at least 150,000 bpd of waterborne imports, the economics are clear: displacement is the goal. Even with the technical challenges of substituting specific imported grades with Houston or Nederland grades, the $10 cost advantage may prove too significant to ignore. The Valero St. Charles refinery stands out as a primary candidate for this shift, currently receiving roughly 80,000 bpd via waterborne imports. Strategically, the refinery could source Bayou Bridge barrels at St. James via Energy Transfer’s Maurepas Pipeline, which already serves the Shell Norco refinery adjacent to the St. Charles facility.

The May 2026 start date for this auction may be no coincidence. While many refiners likely locked in March and April cargoes before the recent price spike, they are now scrambling to secure flexible, lower-cost domestic supply for late spring. This development underscores how sensitive Gulf Coast midstream utilization has become to shifting global geopolitics and widening price spreads.

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Cushing-Houston Crude Spread Widens to $4: Tariff Upside for South Bow’s Marketlink Pipeline

Last week we highlighted how the significant widening of the Cushing-to-Houston crude oil spread is creating upside for major pipelines running from Cushing to the Gulf Coast. That spread has now climbed to approximately $4.00 per barrel, up from around $3.00 the prior week. The wider differential is expected to attract higher volumes on these routes, and one pipeline well positioned to benefit on both volume and realized rates is South Bow’s Marketlink pipeline. As of Q4 2025, Marketlink was operating at roughly 700,000 barrels per day against an estimated capacity of just over 800,000 bpd (with potential for even higher capacity), leaving meaningful room for throughput upside.

In addition to increased volumes, Marketlink stands to gain from the portion of barrels moving under its volume incentive tariff. This tariff prices itself monthly based on the average MEH (Houston) versus WTI Cushing spread. With narrower spreads over the past 12 months, these rates typically settled near the floor of roughly $0.66–$1.00 per barrel depending on crude grade. However, at the current ~$4.00 spread level, the calculated incentive rates would now reach the ceiling range of $2.00–$2.30 per barrel. Although the exact volume under this tariff is not disclosed, the higher rates provide clear incremental revenue upside for Marketlink as long as the spread remains elevated.

Underutilized Rockies Corridor and Guernsey Hub as Cost-Effective Route for Canadian Heavy Crude

Last week, Plainview Energy Analytics and RBN Energy released their multi-client study “Roundabout,” which analyzes the growing importance of the Rockies corridor and the Guernsey, Wyoming hub as a strategic conduit for moving Canadian heavy crude to downstream markets, including the U.S. Gulf Coast. The study highlights significant underutilized pipeline assets that currently transport barrels from Canada into PADD 4 (Wyoming). One clear example is the eastern Montana–Wyoming border, where approximately 200,000 barrels per day of Canadian crude are already moving south into Wyoming.

The primary pipelines serving this corridor include the jointly owned Plains and Phillips 66 Western Corridor system (Glacier, Beartooth, and Bighorn pipelines) as well as Enbridge’s Express Pipeline. These systems are currently underutilized at this border point, with an estimated 125,000 barrels per day of latent capacity available. While bringing additional volumes forward would require upstream pipeline expansions or optimizations in Canada and Montana, the substantial available downstream capacity suggests strong potential for very economic and cost-effective projects to move more Canadian heavy barrels toward the Casper/Guernsey area and ultimately to Gulf Coast markets.

Special offer for current and future Plainview platform subscribers: Purchase the report from RBN Energy and you’ll receive a dollar-for-dollar credit toward an annual Plainview Platform subscription. This gives you ongoing access to the same interactive flow data, maps, and expanding library of regional supply-demand balances used in the analysis.

The report is now live and can be purchased here:
https://rbnenergy.com/analytics/studies/roundabout

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

Special offer for current and future Plainview platform subscribers: Purchase the report from RBN Energy and you’ll receive a dollar-for-dollar credit toward an annual Plainview Platform subscription. This gives you ongoing access to the same interactive flow data, maps, and expanding library of regional supply-demand balances used in the analysis.

The report is now live and can be purchased here:
https://rbnenergy.com/analytics/studies/roundabout

Canadian crude output has climbed from 1.7 MMb/d in 1990 to ~5.1 MMb/d today, with RBN and Plainview projecting further growth to ~5.5 MMb/d by 2030. The dominant Enbridge Mainline (PADD 2) and Trans Mountain (West Coast) corridors still absorb most volumes, but both may be approaching their practical limits as optimization projects will eventually run into physical and economic constraints. As a result, the PADD 4 Rockies corridor is gaining serious traction as a potential path of least resistance. Existing systems already move ~400 Mb/d of Canadian crude into Montana and Wyoming, with meaningful expansion potential on the Express, Rangeland, and Bow River lines. A potential game-changer is also on the horizon: Bridger Pipeline’s proposed 550 Mb/d line from the Canadian border to Guernsey, possibly paired with South Bow’s Prairie Connector that would repurpose dormant Keystone XL infrastructure on the Canadian side.

With numerous potential expansions pushing incremental barrels toward Guernsey, the study also highlights the critical need for outbound egress solutions to more liquid markets like Cushing. Pony Express and Saddlehorn are already operating at or near full utilization, and any significant increase in Canadian inflows without matching takeaway capacity is an impossibility. The analysis explores viable paths forward out of Guernsey, including potential twinning of Pony Express, resurrection of the Liberty Pipeline route, a new connector pipeline to Steele City, or a patchwork of Guernsey-Northern Colorado-Cushing options.

The study dives deep with pipeline-by-pipeline flow data, granular sub-regional supply-demand balances (state-by-state and sub-state), production forecasts for Western Canada and the Rockies, multiple expansion scenarios, and detailed Guernsey pricing dynamics. If you want to understand how Canadian growth, Rockies pipeline logistics, and PADD 4 supply-demand balances are reshaping the North American crude map, this report is worth your time.

Let me know if you purchase it — happy to help redeem your credit or answer any questions. Contact: matthew.lewis@plainview-energy.com

Cushing-Houston WTI Spread Widens: Pipeline Upside for Seaway, Marketlink, and Energy Transfer

The ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global seaborne oil flows and causing oil prices to spike sharply. This has triggered a scramble for available open-water barrels, lifting prices for Brent-linked seaborne crude while landlocked U.S. barrels like WTI at Cushing remain relatively discounted. Coastal refineries, competing for scarcer imported supplies, face higher costs for Brent-priced barrels, widening differentials between key U.S. pricing points. Notably, the spread between WTI at Houston and WTI at Cushing, typically depressed post-COVID to $1–$1.50 per barrel due to ample pipeline capacity, has widened significantly to ~$3 per barrel.

This widening implies strong demand pulling barrels from Cushing toward the Gulf Coast to replace disrupted seaborne imports, likely filling pipelines such as Seaway, Marketlink, and Energy Transfer’s Centurion/Permian Express routes (shown in red below). With current market-based uncommitted tariffs averaging around $1 per barrel, the larger spread suggests these lines are now operating at or near full capacity. If the Hormuz disruption proves long-term, pipelines from Cushing to the Gulf could see substantial upside, enabling operators like Enterprise/Enbridge (via Seaway), South Bow (via Marketlink), and Energy Transfer to potentially increase volumes or raise market-based tariff rates on uncommitted barrels, boosting their economics amid the supply crunch.

Brent-WTI Spread Widens to $13–$14 in 2026 Iran Conflict: Boosting Bakken Crude Rail Shipments to U.S. Coasts?

The widened Brent-WTI spread, now hovering around $13–$14 per barrel amid the ongoing Iran conflict (compared to the typical $3–$5 range), has created a significant discount for WTI-priced U.S. crude. This dynamic encourages North American refiners (particularly those on the coasts) to favor cheaper domestic barrels linked to WTI hubs like Cushing, Guernsey, and Bakken over pricier waterborne imports benchmarked to Brent, which could boost rail shipments as an alternative to seaborne imports.

While several U.S. crude production areas could see an uptick in rail volumes, the Bakken stands out due to its history of substantial rail movements. In 2015, The Wall Street Journal compiled data on crude-by-rail shipments of Bakken crude across the U.S. The map below, though based on 2015 data, illustrates the historic routes these barrels traversed, with prominent paths to both East and West Coast refineries.

Map: Crude Oil Transported by Rail Source: State Emergency Response Commissions
© The Wall Street Journal / Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Published December 3, 2014
https://graphics.wsj.com/crude-oil-by-rail/

Today, about 90% of Bakken rail volumes head to the West Coast and 10% to the East Coast. However, any sustained increase in rail movements faces hurdles: futures markets anticipate a sharp narrowing of the spread to under $6 by mid-2027, complicating efforts to lock in long-term favorable margins. Railroads also lack substantial spare capacity for rapid scaling, requiring time-consuming contracting and planning, challenges amplified by the expected near-term convergence of the spread.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

North American E&P 2026 Guidance: ~1% Oil Production Growth Amid Iran Conflict and Backwardation

With Q4 2025 results finalized and most publicly traded North American producers having released their 2026 guidance, the outlook points to slight overall oil production growth. Plainview’s tracking of North American E&Ps indicates an estimated ~1% exit-to-exit oil production growth from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (see table below). This aligns closely with the softer guidance many companies provided toward the end of Q3 2025, where profiles were generally described as flat to slightly growing. Larger operators are driving much of the weighted growth, with Canadian Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips, and Cenovus guiding to low- to mid-single-digit increases on an organic (acquisition and divestiture-adjusted) basis.

Spiking oil prices amid the ongoing Iran conflict have prompted some optimism for potential adjustments to producer plans. However, the futures curve remains in steep backwardation, making it difficult to commit incremental capital for new projects while locking in attractive economics. This market structure will encourage pulling forward production where possible to capitalize on elevated near-term prices, though producers will likely require sustained higher futures prices ($80+ WTI) to justify adding material new drilling rigs and accelerating broader activity.

Spearhead Pipeline Launches Open Season: 165K bpd Available from Western Canada to Cushing

Enbridge has launched a binding open season for its Spearhead Pipeline (Line 55), offering up to approximately 165,000 barrels per day (bpd) of firm committed capacity from receipt points in Western Canada to delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma, under an International Joint Tariff. Spearhead’s existing contract structure includes legacy committed volumes of around 120,000 bpd locked in from 2006 (extended in 2016) and additional expansion capacity from 2009 (recontracted in 2019), both sets expiring in 2026. The open season targets significant uncommitted space on the roughly 193,000 bpd nameplate capacity pipeline from Flanagan, Illinois, to Cushing.

This offering complements Spearhead capacity already allocated to the Southern Illinois Connector project, which Enbridge sanctioned in late 2025 (expected in-service around 2028) and plans to utilize about 70,000 bpd of existing Spearhead capacity to route barrels from the Midwest toward Patoka, Illinois (via Platte Pipeline connections), and onward to the Gulf Coast via the Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP). The combination of the open season’s 165,000 bpd to Cushing plus the 70,000 bpd for Southern Illinois Connector volumes suggests potential for the northern/Flanagan-to-Key segment of Spearhead to support throughput exceeding the pipeline’s current nameplate capacity in certain configurations, which could enhance overall line utilization and profitability amid strong demand for Canadian crude egress routes.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

The ongoing conflict with Iran, including joint U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iran’s retaliatory actions, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting approximately 20% of global crude oil supply through this critical chokepoint. Crude oil prices have relentlessly surged with the futures curve entering extreme backwardation, with near-term April delivery prices hovering around $115 while longer-dated October contracts trade at just $79.

Sky-high near-term prices will prompt U.S. producers to maximize output where possible, accelerating completions by bringing already-drilled wells online sooner and potentially mobilizing additional completion crews. However, the extreme backwardation chills aggressive new drilling, as longer cycle times mean first oil from new spuds would arrive in a much lower-price environment during the second half of 2026. If the current price curve holds, we anticipate mild U.S. production growth (low to mid-single digits percentage) in the near term (spring/summer 2026) through pull-forward efforts, followed by modest medium-term increases (fall/winter 2026) as second-half 2026 forwards average north of $80, supporting selective new activity in tier-1 basins.

The Permian stands out as the most flexible for ramping production, as demonstrated during the 2022 spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when it added almost a million barrels per day in a single year. A comparable rapid surge is unlikely under current backwardation, but sustained higher prices in 2H 2026 could substantially boost activity.

Current data from Plainview’s interactive Permian Basin balance indicates only about 600,000 barrels per day of open crude oil pipeline capacity from the Permian to the Gulf Coast; a meaningful production increase could quickly fill lines, widen basis spreads, and catalyze new expansion projects.

Prolonged high prices would deliver clear benefits to midstream infrastructure via elevated throughput, providing tailwinds for crude egress developments out of Canada, the Rockies, and especially the Permian. The outlook stays highly uncertain, with extreme bullish scenarios (prices potentially exceeding $150 per barrel) or bearish resolutions (dropping below $80) possible by week’s end, depending on geopolitical developments and any U.S. efforts to reopen shipping lanes.

Downstream, global refiners face severe pressure as supply disruptions force demand rationing through elevated prices, potentially cutting worldwide throughput by over 15% and crushing margins. Refineries may reduce runs sharply, with some vulnerable facilities facing temporary idling or curtailments, particularly in regions reliant on disrupted Middle East crudes. While international demand proves more elastic to price shocks, U.S. gasoline consumption would also soften over time as consumers adapt to persistently higher pump prices, further eroding downstream profitability in this volatile scenario.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

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South Bow’s recent quarterly report and open season notice have highlighted developments on its new Canadian egress solution, the Prairie Connector Project (see below). The company has launched an open season soliciting firm commitments for 450,000 bpd of capacity to Cushing, Oklahoma, and the Gulf Coast, with the process running until March 30, 2026.

As previously discussed, the project appears to leverage existing partial pipeline builds and pump stations from Hardisty, Alberta, to the U.S. border (stranded infrastructure from the original Keystone XL), connecting into Bridger’s proposed new 550,000 bpd expansion pipeline to Guernsey, Wyoming.

The crude oil flow path beyond Wyoming is less clear. From Guernsey, several routing options remain possible to move volumes southward. These include potential new build ties into underutilized segments of legacy Keystone at Steele City, Nebraska, or integrations with existing systems such as a twinning of the Pony Express pipeline, which would deliver into Cushing. Another intriguing possibility involves resurrecting elements of the pre-COVID Liberty Pipeline, a former joint venture between Bridger and Phillips 66, with evidence from Kansas county commissioner and landowner discussions suggesting Tallgrass representatives have recently explored related rights-of-way. The project’s name, Prairie Connector, may hint at deeper ties to Tallgrass Energy. Its parent entity is linked to Prairie Acquiror, suggesting potential collaboration on routing that favors existing corridors of Pony Express or Liberty rights-of-way (now owned by Bridger and Tallgrass) to minimize permitting challenges.

Beyond Cushing, South Bow’s focus appears to be utilizing and maximizing throughput on its existing 36-inch Marketlink segment from Cushing to the Gulf Coast (destinations like Houston and Port Arthur/Nederland). While nominally rated at around 800,000 bpd, this larger-diameter line could support significantly higher volumes, potentially approaching or exceeding 1 million bpd, depending on the light-to-heavy crude mix. Previous disclosures by the company indicated the pipeline was expandable to at least 990,000 bpd.

Overall, the initiative represents a pragmatic approach to unlocking value from idle Keystone XL infrastructure and underutilized/expandable Marketlink capacity while addressing Canadian crude egress constraints and boosting exports to U.S. markets. Success hinges on securing sufficient commitments, navigating regulatory and partnership dynamics (including brownfield competition from established players like Enbridge), and engineering optimal post-Guernsey flows. If advanced, the project could deliver meaningful upside for South Bow by revitalizing stranded assets and enhancing pipeline economics through higher contracted volumes.

The Bakken crude oil egress market has grown increasingly competitive in recent years. Factors include post-COVID declines in production and aggressive competition among pipelines vying for volumes. DAPL flows peaked in 2024 and have since declined moderately, with some market share shifting to competitors like the Bridger Pony Express/Seahorse joint tariff offering, which delivers to Cushing, Oklahoma.

This competition prompted DAPL to offer more attractive pricing in its recontracting effort. Compared to prior rates, the new tariffs represent a reduction of approximately 15 to 20 percent for comparable large-volume, long-term commitments. Previous joint tariff rates to comparable destinations such as Patoka ranged from $5.00 to $6.25 per barrel. To Nederland, previous rates were around $6.50 or more for major volumes.

While lower tariffs reduce per-barrel revenue for the pipeline, they improve netbacks for shippers, meaning higher realized prices after transportation costs, particularly when compared to routing via competing pipelines. Indeed, Energy Transfer noted in its Q4 2025 earnings call that it successfully closed the open season on DAPL, adding incremental volume and extending commitments for some base customers beyond the mid-2030s, likely aided by these more attractive tariffs. With these adjustments, DAPL has reclaimed its position as one of the most economic outlets from the Bakken, offering competitive access to Midwest refineries and premium Gulf Coast markets.

Overall, the rate cuts reflect a strategic response to basin dynamics rather than a severe setback. They help retain and potentially grow volumes on DAPL, especially ahead of possible future enhancements like Mainline Optimization 2, which could boost throughput significantly and more than offset any revenue impacts from the lower rates. This recontracting supports long-term stability for DAPL in a challenging and competitive egress environment.

Sunday's Piece on Dakota Access

Energy Transfer Secures Recontracting on Dakota Access Pipeline Amid Canadian Crude Integration Plans

In its fourth quarter 2025 earnings call, Energy Transfer announced the successful recontracting of a substantial portion of its Bakken capacity on the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL). This effort aligns with plans to incorporate additional Canadian light crude volumes through Enbridge’s Mainline Optimization Phase 2 (MLO2) project, which aims to divert and optimize flows from Enbridge’s Mainline system to DAPL, enabling transport to Patoka and other Midwest hubs. The company stated that the open season added incremental volumes beyond current contracted levels and extended commitments into the mid-2030s. While specific rates were not disclosed, management described them as “market rates reflective of the value of the asset.”

As we have discussed in previous posts, netbacks via other Bakken egress routes are on par with or even more competitive than DAPL given current tariffs. Locking up additional contracted volumes ahead of potential MLO2 volumes should be viewed as a significant win for the pipeline. However, given the competitiveness of the egress market, these volumes will likely come at the cost of lower tariff rates, mitigating revenue and earnings upside.

The Ballymore Field Ramp-Up Boosts Gulf Pipe Flows and Chevron’s Downstream Operations

Since achieving first oil in April 2025, the Ballymore field in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico has delivered a strong and steady production ramp up. Co-owned by Chevron (60%) and TotalEnergies (40%), the field feeds directly into the Williams Mountaineer offshore pipeline, which connects to Chevron’s Breton Sound pipeline near the Louisiana coastline. Throughput on Breton Sound climbed significantly through the end of 2025 (see figure below), surpassing 120,000 bpd compared with the pre-Ballymore range of ~30,000 bpd.

The added volumes from Ballymore appear to support stronger operations at Chevron’s Pascagoula refinery in Mississippi. Crude delivered through Breton Sound reaches the Empire Terminal, from which the Chevron operated Cal-Ky pipeline carries oil to the refinery. Flows on the Cal-Ky pipeline reached decade high levels of 240,000 bpd in December 2025 (see figure below). Although the line was previously rated at a nameplate capacity of 150,000 bpd, recent performance indicates successful expansions or optimizations that allow for much higher utilization. This enhanced supply chain positions Chevron to capture greater value from its integrated Gulf of Mexico production and downstream assets.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

South Bow and Capline Pipeline Owners Could Win Big If Bridger Expansion Gets Sanctioned

Last week we highlighted the proposed Bridger Pipeline Expansion (video link), a 36-inch pipeline project that aims to transport up to 550,000 barrels per day of crude oil from the U.S.-Canada border in Montana to Guernsey, Wyoming. While still navigating regulatory approvals and securing committed shippers, the project’s sanctioning would have ripple effects to a host of other midstream infrastructure.

Among midstream players, South Bow stands out as a potential prime beneficiary, leveraging its existing Keystone XL assets from Hardisty, Alberta, to the border. By repurposing these partially built facilities, South Bow could efficiently connect volumes to the Bridger line with minimal additional capital outlay, promising strong returns on capital through high utilization and low incremental costs. A potential extension from Guernsey to Steele City, Nebraska (dashed white line below), would further integrate with South Bow’s underutilized legacy Keystone infrastructure, allowing for increased throughput on its Steele City to Cushing and Patoka lines without substantial investments and amplifying economic upside.

Downstream, the Capline pipeline emerges as another potential winner, capable of handling additional volumes directed toward Patoka southbound to Louisiana refineries and export facilities. Currently operating below 200,000 barrels per day on its 40-inch line, Capline could scale beyond 1 million barrels per day, requiring little capital expenditure for initial expansions. Owned in a joint venture by Plains All American Pipeline (54%), Marathon Petroleum Corporation (33%), and BP (13%), all partners would likely experience boosted earnings and strong returns on capital.

ExxonMobil’s Permian Momentum: Surging New Mexico Output Filling Company Pipelines

ExxonMobil continues to demonstrate strong momentum in the Permian Basin, signaling sustained growth ahead. During its recent fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company emphasized no near-term production peak in the region, projecting an increase from a record 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in Q4 2025 to more than 2.5 million boe/d beyond 2030.

U.S. and state production data highlights New Mexico as the primary growth engine of the Permian over the past year. Volumes on Exxon’s crude oil pipeline from New Mexico to Wink, Texas, have surged notably, rising from around 140,000 barrels per day in late 2024 to over 250,000 barrels per day by late 2025 (see figure below). With this direct pipeline connectivity, the Wink to Webster system has also enjoyed a boost in utilization and is now approaching nameplate capacity. Exxon’s continued Permian growth through 2030 should continue to support robust flows on these lines.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.

Bridger Pipeline has submitted a regulatory application in Montana for a new 36-inch-diameter crude oil transmission pipeline. This expansion project aims to transport Canadian crude oil across the U.S.-Canada border into Montana, with an initial capacity of approximately 550,000 barrels per day. The proposed route begins near an existing border crossing area, heads south briefly before turning east, then proceeds south through Montana and into Wyoming, ultimately delivering volumes to the Guernsey hub.

The geographic origin of the pipeline strongly suggests that the upstream Canadian portion will leverage partially built infrastructure from the canceled Keystone XL project. Portions of a 36-inch pipeline, along with facilities such as a terminal near Hardisty, Alberta, and two pump stations, remain in place and idle following the project’s termination in 2021. This existing network appears to be the primary upstream source capable of supplying the proposed volumes, effectively enabling a partial utilization, or resurrection, of Keystone XL’s Canadian segment to feed into the new Bridger line.

In Montana, the chosen route prioritizes permitting practicability by avoiding sensitive areas like water body crossings, wildlife refuges, and tribal lands that complicated alternative southeastern paths. Over half of the new pipeline in Montana and all of it in Wyoming will follow existing rights-of-way, reducing construction costs and environmental disruption. The line may tie into Bridger’s existing systems at points such as Four Mile and Baker, potentially capturing some light crude from the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana en route south.

Downstream from Guernsey, Wyoming, the 550,000 barrels per day will require integration into broader takeaway options, as local storage and markets cannot absorb such volumes alone. A logical path involves a new build line connecting to the existing Keystone pipeline system at Steele City, Nebraska, which features underutilized capacity on its legs to Cushing, Oklahoma, and Patoka, Illinois. These volumes could further access Gulf Coast markets via lines like Capline from Patoka, or South Bow’s Marketlink Pipeline from Cushing. Another potential option is utilizing Bridger-affiliated assets such as the Pony Express pipeline toward Cushing. This option would likely require a new pipeline from Northern Colorado to Cushing.

Enbridge last week revealed the planned path for its Mainline Optimization 2 (MLO2) project, which aims to boost takeaway capacity for Canadian crude oil, especially heavy grades, toward the Gulf Coast. Building on the recently sanctioned Phase I, which adds 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the Mainline system (with 50,000 bpd staying in Midwest markets and 100,000 bpd moving via Flanagan South to the Gulf Coast), Phase II targets up to an additional 250,000 bpd of incremental full path capacity.

The project cleverly optimizes existing infrastructure by separating light and heavy oil paths on the Enbridge Mainline and Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL). It involves redirecting up to 250,000 bpd of light oil southward through a reversal of Enbridge’s Bakken pipeline (previously flowing north from North Dakota to connect with the Mainline). This reversed segment delivers light volumes to the Berthold area in North Dakota, where they connect via a reversal on one of Enbridge’s North Dakota lines into DAPL, onward to Patoka, Illinois. From Patoka, these light barrels flow north via the Chicap pipeline to maintain light oil supply to Midwest refineries, particularly around Chicago, that previously relied on direct Mainline deliveries. This shifting of light barrels frees up space on the Mainline for additional heavy oil volumes.

For the heavy oil path, incremental barrels flow the traditional southeast path on the Mainline to the Flanagan hub and connect into the Flanagan South Pipeline. Flanagan South (already expanding to 800,000 bpd capacity under MLO1) appears able to accommodate these incremental heavy barrels, potentially aided by a mix of light or medium grades allowing higher throughput than heavy only limits. The heavy crude then moves via Flanagan South to Cushing, Oklahoma, where it utilizes the Seaway Pipeline to reach the Gulf Coast. Seaway, with around 950,000 bpd total capacity across its two 30-inch lines (one newer and higher capacity), has some available space, though further optimizations or expansions may be needed to handle combined Phase I and II volumes without constraints.

This approach leverages pipeline reversals, underutilized assets like Chicap (a 26-inch line with significant spare capacity), and existing partnerships (including with Energy Transfer on DAPL) to minimize new construction while maximizing efficiency. It offers a cost-effective solution compared to entirely new builds, though questions remain about tariff structures, particularly how shifted light oil routes via DAPL and Chicap compare economically to original Mainline rates.

Wyoming Production Declines as Potential Pipeline Expansions into PADD 4 Heat Up

Last week’s newsletter highlighted recent declining production in PADD 4, particularly in Wyoming, where output has been notably weak over the past six months, declining more than 10 percent. While flagging production may reduce local volumes, this supply loss could be more than offset by increased flows of Canadian crude into PADD 4. One possibility mentioned by Plains last week is an expansion of their Rangeland system. That expansion would likely leverage the sister Western Corridor system (including the Glacier, Beartooth, and Bighorn pipelines; orange pipes in our Wyoming balance below) to transport Canadian barrels from Montana into Wyoming and onward to the Guernsey Hub.

The Western corridor systems all have pockets of underutilized capacity. Shown below are flows on the Phillips 66 and Plains Beartooth undivided joint interests (UJI) from Montana to Wyoming. Both UJIs flow significantly under their nameplate capacity.

Market speculation and rumors persist about additional projects aimed at moving more Canadian crude into PADD 4, especially as Canada’s production trends show steady growth over the next decade and those barrels seek new outlets. Enbridge recently sanctioned a 30,000-barrel-per-day expansion on its Express pipeline. Those volumes will deliver into Casper, Wyoming, but appear ultimately destined for Midwest markets on a sister expansion slated on their Platte pipeline. Another potential supply increase could come from the Bridger pipeline, which recently indicated it is exploring an expansion on its system. The increased volumes likely target additional Bakken supply, but market speculation on a possible Canadian connection also exists.

To provide deeper context, Plainview Energy Analytics and RBN Energy are partnering on a comprehensive analysis of PADD 4 crude market dynamics which will include regional balances, pipelines flows and capacities, potential expansion pathways, and their broader implications. The report is expected to be released in the coming weeks and will be available through RBN.

Mexico’s Dos Bocas Refinery Ramps Up: Heavy Crude Throughput Surge and Reduced Exports Will Impact U.S.

Pemex’s December 2025 data reveal a significant step forward in Mexico’s push for refining self-sufficiency, as the long-delayed Olmeca refinery (also known as Dos Bocas) showed strong progress in ramping up operations. The $20 billion facility, designed exclusively to process heavy Mexican crude like Maya with a nameplate capacity of 340,000 barrels per day (bpd), achieved a throughput of over 260,000 bpd.

The surge reflects broader efforts across Pemex’s refineries to boost domestic processing amid declining crude production, which has fallen by about 200,000 bpd over the past two years, reducing excess heavy crude available for export. This shift has notable implications for global heavy crude markets, particularly in the U.S. Gulf Coast. With Mexico consuming more of its own heavy oil domestically and exports dropping to multi-decade lows, there’s limited surplus Maya crude entering international markets.

As Venezuelan heavy crude production potentially ramps up under changing geopolitical dynamics, the reduced Mexican supply could offset some of the downward pressure on Gulf Coast heavy prices. This dynamic may also support better netbacks and economics for Canadian heavy oil delivered to the region, helping stabilize pricing amid competing supply sources.

Flow/Transaction Updates and New Assets Under Coverage

Plainview has over 300 assets with crude oil flow or transactional data on our platform and continues to add more each week. Data for existing assets under coverage are posted as soon as they become available. Below are the assets that were updated this week or newly added to coverage.